Saturday, May 29, 2010

2010-05-29: NE/SD/ne CO/w KS - CBB

2010-05-29: NE/SD/ne CO/w KS - CBB: "EDIT: 00z RUC now up. Low pressure now forecast to develop on CO/NE borders with backing winds along the state borders Sidney-Kimball. RUC 500mb are 40kt over the area (weakest over CO, but excellent over the NE PH).

The 850mb winds are downright the C NE region there is a brisk LLJ with a small diffluent spur that will feed into the NE PH. However, most of the 850mb winds appear to be cyclonic out of the NNW from WY eastward. That the 850s appear to loop completely around my target area is not favorable...for that's not even clear to this novice forecaster what to make of this.

Likely in response to the sfc low, and therefore low-level wind shear, the 0-3 SRH and EHIs in the region look terrific...but the 850s feel like a juggernaut.

No change in target for now...will hold in Scottsbluff another hour or so and then likely drift south toward Kimball, NE."

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