2010-05-29: NE/SD/ne CO/w KS - CBB: "EDIT: 00z RUC now up. Low pressure now forecast to develop on CO/NE borders with backing winds along the state borders Sidney-Kimball. RUC 500mb are 40kt over the area (weakest over CO, but excellent over the NE PH).
The 850mb winds are downright wonky...in the C NE region there is a brisk LLJ with a small diffluent spur that will feed into the NE PH. However, most of the 850mb winds appear to be cyclonic out of the NNW from WY eastward. That the 850s appear to loop completely around my target area is not favorable...for that matter...it's not even clear to this novice forecaster what to make of this.
Likely in response to the sfc low, and therefore low-level wind shear, the 0-3 SRH and EHIs in the region look terrific...but the 850s feel like a juggernaut.
No change in target for now...will hold in Scottsbluff another hour or so and then likely drift south toward Kimball, NE."
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Back out on the Plains: Forecast 5/29/2010
I'm back out on the Plains for about a week and half of what looks like modestly impressive setups for several discrete cell systems this year. Beats the hell out of last year already (and that's an understatement).
Currently I'm in the Nebraska Panhandle in a small town called Scottsbluff. My forecast is for areas just south of here. For a technical smorgasbord:
I think my forecast may be getting RUC'd-up at the moment...
Pluses this am:
Morning sfc data for the NE PH area and N KS are showing Tds in the 50-60+ range with sfc winds out of the south at 10-20kt. RUC is forecasting EHI over the Ogallala, NE, area to be in excess of 6 (with 0-3km SRH >400) by 00z suggesting availaible helicity in an area of forecast lapse rates between 6-8deg. SBCAPE will be in excess of 2000 along the I-80 corridor. The LSI shows this area to be under a "perfect" capping inversion (LSIs 1-3) that should suppress convection until either convective temp is reached (unlikely) or convergence/upslope forces convection (possible). The 4km WRF is suggesting that isolated cells will develop by around 22z over Sydney-Ogallala line with a possibly more discrete cell just south into CO.
Negatives this am:
The 00z from yesterday show that the GFS solution for a more progressive trough over the NE PH is unlikely, and that the NAM solution was more correct. This am's RUC appears to split the difference and place the trough just off the WY front range by 21z. Looking at this morning's water vapor image, it seems that the more westerly solution is likely the correct one. If the trough can move a bit more east than that, then the NE PH will be under the influence of the right rear entrance region of the jet and could have further lift from that mechanism as well. This morning's 00z KBLF sounding showed very high LCLs (>1500 ft), and this is without daytime heating that will likely augment the T/Td spreads. Last, an sfc backing is going to have to be due to a mesoscale low event since forecast sfc winds are just a mess on the RUC and NAM for later today.
Preliminary Changes to Forecast:
At this point I'm in Scottsbluff, NE, but will likely begin to meander south to Kimball, NE, where I'll try to further target refine.
As always, you can chase along with me by following my car icon below :)!
Currently I'm in the Nebraska Panhandle in a small town called Scottsbluff. My forecast is for areas just south of here. For a technical smorgasbord:
I think my forecast may be getting RUC'd-up at the moment...
Pluses this am:
Morning sfc data for the NE PH area and N KS are showing Tds in the 50-60+ range with sfc winds out of the south at 10-20kt. RUC is forecasting EHI over the Ogallala, NE, area to be in excess of 6 (with 0-3km SRH >400) by 00z suggesting availaible helicity in an area of forecast lapse rates between 6-8deg. SBCAPE will be in excess of 2000 along the I-80 corridor. The LSI shows this area to be under a "perfect" capping inversion (LSIs 1-3) that should suppress convection until either convective temp is reached (unlikely) or convergence/upslope forces convection (possible). The 4km WRF is suggesting that isolated cells will develop by around 22z over Sydney-Ogallala line with a possibly more discrete cell just south into CO.
Negatives this am:
The 00z from yesterday show that the GFS solution for a more progressive trough over the NE PH is unlikely, and that the NAM solution was more correct. This am's RUC appears to split the difference and place the trough just off the WY front range by 21z. Looking at this morning's water vapor image, it seems that the more westerly solution is likely the correct one. If the trough can move a bit more east than that, then the NE PH will be under the influence of the right rear entrance region of the jet and could have further lift from that mechanism as well. This morning's 00z KBLF sounding showed very high LCLs (>1500 ft), and this is without daytime heating that will likely augment the T/Td spreads. Last, an sfc backing is going to have to be due to a mesoscale low event since forecast sfc winds are just a mess on the RUC and NAM for later today.
Preliminary Changes to Forecast:
At this point I'm in Scottsbluff, NE, but will likely begin to meander south to Kimball, NE, where I'll try to further target refine.
As always, you can chase along with me by following my car icon below :)!
Monday, May 10, 2010
High Risk Day--Bad News KS/OK
There are few days that ever are as big in chasing as this one would be (were I to be out). Textbooks will be written based on today's amazing setup, but it means bleak things for those who live in KS/OK.
At the time of this writing (1500 EST), the atmosphere has come alive and things will begin to unfold in a major and destructive tornado outbreak.
Here's the current visible satellite image:
You'll notice that there is a line of convective storms (hard-looking cumulus clouds) in the SW KS/TX & OK PH areas. This area is under incredible atmospheric cues that include: abundant moisture, abundant instability, abundant lift, and synoptic scale features (a triple point: the intersection of a dryline, low pressure system, and surface fronts).
Current surface winds are out of the south over the target area (an area about 50 miles west of I-35 between Wichita, KS, and Oklahoma City, OK). Early radar returns show that the cumulus clouds have rapidly ascended and already are producing rain and in some cases short-lived tornados. This is incredibly fast development and there is still about 8 hours of daytime sunlight to fuel these flames.
Amazing upper level support is moving over the area, and this region is in the left front exit region of a jet streak at 500mb.
The bottom line: this day falls under the term epic and sadly Wichita down to OKC look to be under a very threatening gun. Will update as time allows.
=======
Latest 500mb analysis qualifies as "the perfect storm". Anticipate huge tornados will begin to form in the next hour or so with very large damage potential.
At the time of this writing (1500 EST), the atmosphere has come alive and things will begin to unfold in a major and destructive tornado outbreak.
Here's the current visible satellite image:
You'll notice that there is a line of convective storms (hard-looking cumulus clouds) in the SW KS/TX & OK PH areas. This area is under incredible atmospheric cues that include: abundant moisture, abundant instability, abundant lift, and synoptic scale features (a triple point: the intersection of a dryline, low pressure system, and surface fronts).
Current surface winds are out of the south over the target area (an area about 50 miles west of I-35 between Wichita, KS, and Oklahoma City, OK). Early radar returns show that the cumulus clouds have rapidly ascended and already are producing rain and in some cases short-lived tornados. This is incredibly fast development and there is still about 8 hours of daytime sunlight to fuel these flames.
Amazing upper level support is moving over the area, and this region is in the left front exit region of a jet streak at 500mb.
The bottom line: this day falls under the term epic and sadly Wichita down to OKC look to be under a very threatening gun. Will update as time allows.
=======
Latest 500mb analysis qualifies as "the perfect storm". Anticipate huge tornados will begin to form in the next hour or so with very large damage potential.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Tornado Hits Jacksonville, Florida
Photo from Mandarin/Orange Park, FL. Photographers unknown. Copied from WJXT (news4jax.com) and FirstCoastNews.com. June 26, 2009, copyrights unknown.
We moved to Jacksonville in 1997 and since that time, I've managed to miss every single tornado that has ever hit around Jacksonville. Even when I've come up with a good chasing plan, I never did get lucky, and sometimes I'd miss an especially gorgeous tornado by minutes. With the low cloud ceilings (often less than 1kft AGL).Today, however, luck (I was at work tonight--an unplanned shift to assist a colleague and therefore was in perfect placement) and a terrific friend, colleague, and future storm chaser, Dr. Michael Maniaci conspired to my benefit.
Synoptic Background:
There was no evidence that there would be anything more than pop-up thunderstorms typical of summertime in FL. The sfc observations revealed a very mild low pressure system centered over Alabama with very little in the way of brisk sfc winds. In retrospect, however, the low pressure was sufficient to create marginally good westward sfc winds over the FL PH which likely led to a delay in the normal westward movement of the seabreeze which occurs typically early in the afternoon.
T/Td spreads were around 20 degrees (90/70) in JAX in the morning and were forecast to narrow (90/75) prior to peak daytime heating. The upper air situation was unusual in that 700mb temps were less than 10 degrees as opposed to the usual subtropical temperatures typical during the summertime. As is seen below, the hodograph favored largely stationary storms with high precipitation and no upper level support for large scale storm rotation.
Mesoscale Evolution:
As the afternoon developed, a mesolow appeared over JAX and slightly offshore. The seabreeze did start as usual, but was very delayed by the sfc westward winds resulting in an afternoon seabreeze still laying across the JAX area by 21z. The SB can be easily delineated on BR draped from NW to SE.
The SB led to an area of strong sfc convergence in St. John's Cty (south of JAX) and created a line of typical summer pop-up storms in that area. However, on the northern fringe of the storms, the SB had a kink in it which is also visible in the image above. A separate cell nestled into that area and rapidly developed into a non-embedded cell. Although I don't have enough sfc data to know for sure, I suspect that winds south of the cell were out of the east and north of the cell were out of the NE leading me to believe a mesolow had formed in that area in response to the pinned up SB.
The northerly cell almost immediately developed deviant leftward motion and began to "ride" the SB like a zipper.
As it rode the seabreeze, it immediately developed moderate midlevel rotation seen on the lower tilts.
The storm gradually continued its left turn and accelerated slightly, but continuing to ride the seabreeze. At about 2050z the first reports of a tornado were noted. At 2055z, my partner, Dr. Maniaci, contacted me stating he was staring at a large tornado on the ground (which, after my lackluster season this past year, was something I felt was poor form to tease me about). After a minute of me convincing him that he was hallucinating, he said, "Go LOOK!"
I shot up to the 5th floor of our hospital and immediately saw the tornado. It was a dramatic sight since I'd never ever thought I'd see one here. The T/Td spreads were perfect giving the storm base a relative higher height than is often seen here. There was a perfect cylindrical tornado easy to spot about 10 miles to my west and moving northward at about 5-10mph. I tried to capture images w/ my cell phone, but the distance focus on this thing sucks, so you'll have to trust me when I tell you what it looked like from here. Fortunately, lots of other folks were in much better positions to capture the tornado, and I share their photos here.
This first photo is from the FL Dept of Transportation showing the tornado with good backlighting. While I was sure the storm had been reported, I didn't get my usual phone notification of warnings in our area. I called NWS JAX and told them what I was seeing. This jived with several calls they were getting simultaneously and a TORNADO WARNING was issued for Duval County. I then called our operator at the hospital and asked them to initiate a TORNADO notification overhead (but truthfully, our hospital was never in anyway in jeopardy as the tornado would not move near us).
The next SRV1 tilt shows the tornado in the middle of the warning area, but without a mesocyclone indicator. At that time, visually the tornado had a very classic supercell appearance.
A midlevel feeder band (Beaver Tail) was coming in from the east into the parent storm and there were striations visible along the wall cloud and base. To the north, propagating storms began to form. On the radar, the seabreeze breaks south of the storm and begins to march due west. However, two separate boundaries (the northern portion of the SB) and some other area of convergence "scissored" together in N JAX leading to brief intensifcation of the storm (a mesoscale hiccup) and this can be seen on the following BR image). I should note that visually the boundary to the east of the storm was highly visible with low-level scud getting kicked up along it.
This led to the most visually dramatic portion of the storm which is captured best in the next two photos from Downtown JAX. The first was again anonymous from WJXT. The second photo was sent to me from one of my friends, Dr. Matt Geraci, from Baptist Hospital in Downtown JAX. Unfortunately, since the tornado was at this point over the St. John's River, it was called a waterspout by all popular media and I disagree since I believe this was in fact a true mesocyclone tornado with some non-MST features (weak circulation aloft but with highly visible structure consistent with a typical MST).
After about 20 mins, the tornado dissipated as the RFD wrapped around with a clear slot visible. To the northeast of the occlusion, a new wall cloud formed with intermittent cloud debris seen at the sfc.
In both photos (which were shot from the NE of the TOR looking SW), you can see the occlusion from the RFD behind the storm, the associated wall cloud, and kinking in the base of the tornado due to collision with the easterly boundary. This was not due to any precipitation east of the tornado: there was no precip east of it. So the kink was due to the sfc boundary in that area, I believe.
I did manage to get a single so-so photo of the boundary and the associated updraft and anvil. This was looking NNW from Mayo Hospital and the quality is better than the other photos I have but still pretty grainy/crappy. 
That said, features can be identified including the low-level convergence field draped from the right to left of the photo and midlevel clouds moving into the parent updraft near the top of the photo with a hint of blue sky just behind the anvil.
That said, features can be identified including the low-level convergence field draped from the right to left of the photo and midlevel clouds moving into the parent updraft near the top of the photo with a hint of blue sky just behind the anvil.My chase partner, Dr. Bill Hark in Virginia, was one of my first contacts (following making sure my wife and children were doing okay with the storm which still passed well west of our home). He was nice enough to send me this animated WeatherTap (c) gif of the radar loop. Notable in the loop is just how quickly the northern cell accelerated after breaking from the other cells, and just how deviant its motion was from the mean.
This was such a great surprise and totally and completely makes me overjoyed. For a short time I was emotionally and spiritually back on the chase, and it reminded me why I so totally love this hobby. It also accentuates just how lucky you have to be sometimes and just how much more there is to learn.
My thanks to everyone who was kind enough to help me get this blog completed. My special thanks to Dr. Maniaci, though: I am delighted you thought first to call me. What a great surprise this was.
Comments/feedback are welcome, naturally. I will willingly remove any photograph that anyone feels is a copyright violation or violates public domain.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The Storm Season That Wasn't...And Isn't
I've spent a wonderful week with the family since coming home early from the Plains. We went to the beach, have spent awesome time together, and actually enjoyed chasing a school of stingrays that had traveled close to the shoreline (something I'd never seen before). It's been wonderful. But, of course, now I'm back to work and missing the Plains a little bit, knowing I'm still about 11 months away before I'll be back out combing the place for severe weather.
It's true that this year is a statistical oddity. A sufficient outlier from the norm, even some of the most veteran chasers I know are struck in amazement at the silence of our usual stomping grounds. I think some perspective is in order. First of all, the following graph is based on the weather in the contiguous lower 48 states. So the bars represent total numbers of reports of severe weather. Here is May, 2009:
The irony, naturally, is that the nadir in weather began EXACTLY on the first day I was out chasing. In contrast, here's May, 2008:
Now, last year there also definitely was a small nadir right before the massive outbreak of storms that resulted in the biggest and most destructive tornadoes I've ever witnessed. But the frequency of severe weather seemed to follow an appropriately oscillating sine wave as would be expected in weather. And while that sine wave is also present on this year's weather reports, the height is absent.
At the moment it appears that this trend will continue with only scattered severe weather here and there. The SPC is reporting that during the latter half of May they issued the fewest number of Severe Weather Watches ever. Just thought this was kinda interesting.
It's true that this year is a statistical oddity. A sufficient outlier from the norm, even some of the most veteran chasers I know are struck in amazement at the silence of our usual stomping grounds. I think some perspective is in order. First of all, the following graph is based on the weather in the contiguous lower 48 states. So the bars represent total numbers of reports of severe weather. Here is May, 2009:
The irony, naturally, is that the nadir in weather began EXACTLY on the first day I was out chasing. In contrast, here's May, 2008:
Now, last year there also definitely was a small nadir right before the massive outbreak of storms that resulted in the biggest and most destructive tornadoes I've ever witnessed. But the frequency of severe weather seemed to follow an appropriately oscillating sine wave as would be expected in weather. And while that sine wave is also present on this year's weather reports, the height is absent.
At the moment it appears that this trend will continue with only scattered severe weather here and there. The SPC is reporting that during the latter half of May they issued the fewest number of Severe Weather Watches ever. Just thought this was kinda interesting.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Abbreviation of the Chase...Getting Back to What's Important
Today I've hit a sort of critical mass, one that requires I refocus my efforts on my family and take the time I have remaining in my vacation to be with them. I love chasing, but I love my family more. I just don't get enough time off to spend with them. For any number of reasons, they're feeling my absence more this year, and I am really needing to be with them too. Heading home one week early from the Plains allows me to acknowledge that this year's chasing prospects are nothing but recurring marginal days with hours of driving and a lot of expense with only a lonely heart away from my family--my wife and kids. I choose to be with them. Financially, emotionally, and intellectually, I know this to be right. There will always be "next year" for chasing. My real life beckons, and I will yield to its lovely siren song.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Unexpected Chase: Saturday, May 23, 2009
///UPDATED 5.23.09 @ 2130
Terrifically fun little chase day (<150 miles round trip). Early initiation along a boundary mentioned below led to briefly rotating LP storms that sadly congealed rapidly into multicell squall lines. I did take a few photos today, but as I work on them in the digital drylab, I continue to be a bit disappointed with the quality. There's not a lot of cool dynamic interaction between the sky and the land, and the colors are bleachy. Still, I made it home before dinner and under a tank of gas. Believe me that I'm not sated. But some of the pain of the year washed off just by getting to feel like a chaser again for a little while over chase terrain on which I'd cut my chasing teeth in the 1990s.
///INITIAL POST
Totally unexpected day...I'm on home chase territory and agree we're in landspout mode. Starting in DEN and heading along I-70 to the DCVZ. Confluent wind fields N/S along the Palmer Divide have set up nicely. T/Td spreads are very small for this area, and in fact there is more humidity than I could have hoped for (Tds are 50+). All of this is about initiation and catching the early landspout. I can't be too picky. But I'm liking the current mesoanalysis. Off to I-70.
Again, you can follow my progress by looking at the car-shaped icon in the map below.
Terrifically fun little chase day (<150 miles round trip). Early initiation along a boundary mentioned below led to briefly rotating LP storms that sadly congealed rapidly into multicell squall lines. I did take a few photos today, but as I work on them in the digital drylab, I continue to be a bit disappointed with the quality. There's not a lot of cool dynamic interaction between the sky and the land, and the colors are bleachy. Still, I made it home before dinner and under a tank of gas. Believe me that I'm not sated. But some of the pain of the year washed off just by getting to feel like a chaser again for a little while over chase terrain on which I'd cut my chasing teeth in the 1990s.
///INITIAL POST
Totally unexpected day...I'm on home chase territory and agree we're in landspout mode. Starting in DEN and heading along I-70 to the DCVZ. Confluent wind fields N/S along the Palmer Divide have set up nicely. T/Td spreads are very small for this area, and in fact there is more humidity than I could have hoped for (Tds are 50+). All of this is about initiation and catching the early landspout. I can't be too picky. But I'm liking the current mesoanalysis. Off to I-70.
Again, you can follow my progress by looking at the car-shaped icon in the map below.
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